Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,718
2 New Jersey 18,519
3 Massachusetts 15,034
4 Rhode Island 14,765
5 District of Columbia 13,303
6 Connecticut 12,367
7 Delaware 10,240
8 Illinois 10,165
9 Maryland 9,763
10 Louisiana 9,284
11 Nebraska 8,143
12 Iowa 7,008
13 Michigan 6,499
14 Pennsylvania 6,282
15 South Dakota 6,184
16 Virginia 6,004
17 Mississippi 5,970
18 Indiana 5,726
19 Minnesota 5,006
20 Colorado 4,891
21 Georgia 4,708
22 New Mexico 4,321
23 Alabama 4,267
24 Tennessee 3,985
25 Utah 3,860
26 Arizona 3,813
27 North Dakota 3,783
28 New Hampshire 3,735
29 Kansas 3,681
30 Wisconsin 3,634
31 North Carolina 3,487
32 California 3,398
33 Washington 3,360
34 Ohio 3,322
35 Arkansas 3,227
36 Nevada 3,186
37 Florida 3,021
38 South Carolina 2,874
39 Texas 2,666
40 Kentucky 2,619
41 Missouri 2,469
42 Maine 1,925
43 Oklahoma 1,821
44 Idaho 1,788
45 Vermont 1,722
46 Wyoming 1,658
47 Puerto Rico 1,579
48 West Virginia 1,205
49 Oregon 1,167
50 Alaska 829
51 Montana 512
52 Hawaii 468

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 155
2 Arkansas 120
3 Mississippi 111
4 Utah 107
5 Virginia 106
6 Alabama 104
7 North Carolina 100
8 District of Columbia 89
9 Maryland 89
10 South Carolina 87
11 Iowa 82
12 Louisiana 76
13 Minnesota 73
14 South Dakota 73
15 Tennessee 69
16 Delaware 68
17 California 65
18 Illinois 65
19 Nebraska 64
20 Rhode Island 63
21 New Mexico 61
22 Connecticut 59
23 North Dakota 59
24 Washington 58
25 Nevada 55
26 Florida 53
27 Georgia 53
28 Indiana 52
29 Massachusetts 51
30 Kentucky 48
31 Texas 46
32 New York 44
33 Puerto Rico 44
34 New Jersey 43
35 Wisconsin 42
36 Pennsylvania 39
37 Michigan 38
38 Missouri 34
39 Colorado 32
40 New Hampshire 30
41 Ohio 30
42 Oregon 27
43 Kansas 26
44 Maine 26
45 Vermont 25
46 Alaska 19
47 Oklahoma 17
48 Idaho 16
49 Wyoming 15
50 West Virginia 7
51 Hawaii 2
52 Montana 2

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,554
2 New Jersey 1,375
3 Connecticut 1,145
4 Massachusetts 1,066
5 Rhode Island 754
6 District of Columbia 695
7 Louisiana 633
8 Michigan 592
9 Illinois 470
10 Pennsylvania 469
11 Maryland 459
12 Delaware 408
13 Indiana 344
14 Mississippi 281
15 Colorado 267
16 Minnesota 214
17 New Hampshire 210
18 Ohio 205
19 Georgia 204
20 Iowa 197
21 New Mexico 190
22 Virginia 173
23 Washington 153
24 Alabama 146
25 Arizona 144
26 Nevada 143
27 Missouri 135
28 Florida 126
29 California 118
30 Wisconsin 111
31 Kentucky 109
32 South Carolina 108
33 Nebraska 101
34 North Carolina 99
35 North Dakota 98
36 Vermont 88
37 Oklahoma 87
38 Kansas 81
39 Maine 73
40 South Dakota 73
41 Texas 64
42 Tennessee 61
43 Arkansas 51
44 Idaho 46
45 West Virginia 46
46 Puerto Rico 44
47 Oregon 38
48 Utah 38
49 Wyoming 29
50 Montana 16
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 8
2 New Jersey 6
3 District of Columbia 5
4 Massachusetts 5
5 Connecticut 4
6 Maryland 4
7 Delaware 3
8 Illinois 3
9 Mississippi 3
10 Alabama 2
11 Indiana 2
12 Iowa 2
13 Louisiana 2
14 Michigan 2
15 Minnesota 2
16 New Mexico 2
17 New York 2
18 Arizona 1
19 California 1
20 Colorado 1
21 Georgia 1
22 New Hampshire 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Ohio 1
25 Pennsylvania 1
26 South Carolina 1
27 Alaska 0
28 Arkansas 0
29 Florida 0
30 Hawaii 0
31 Idaho 0
32 Kansas 0
33 Kentucky 0
34 Maine 0
35 Missouri 0
36 Montana 0
37 Nebraska 0
38 Nevada 0
39 North Dakota 0
40 Oklahoma 0
41 Oregon 0
42 Puerto Rico 0
43 South Dakota 0
44 Tennessee 0
45 Texas 0
46 Utah 0
47 Vermont 0
48 Virginia 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,804 1 99
Lake Tennessee 103,193 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 85,888 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,630 4 99
Nobles Minnesota 73,836 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 8,972 253 91
Richland South Carolina 4,315 661 78
Pierce Washington 2,591 1062 66
Orange California 2,407 1137 63
York South Carolina 1,730 1442 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,074 1 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 2 99
Early Georgia 3,042 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,220 5 99
Richland South Carolina 168 625 80
Davidson Tennessee 105 838 73
Pierce Washington 94 896 71
Orange California 56 1194 61
York South Carolina 36 1414 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons